NPP Faces Shifting Political Landscape, Analyst Says

A recent by-election loss in Akwatia has raised questions for the New Patriotic Party (NPP). The party, a traditional powerhouse in Ghanaian politics, faces a shifting political landscape. According to Dr. John Osae-Kwapong, the NPP has long enjoyed an electoral advantage over its main rival, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Past data from Afrobarometer surveys confirm this trend. From 1999 to 2022, for instance, a majority of Ghanaians consistently preferred the NPP. This preference persisted even when the party was in opposition. Voter intentions also favored the NPP in pre-election surveys from CDD-Ghana in 2016 and 2020. This data consistently suggested the NPP had an electoral upper hand.

However, a notable change is occurring. In Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024), for the first time since 2002, Ghanaians chose the NDC as their preferred party. This is a significant development. Furthermore, Dr. Osae-Kwapong’s analysis shows a worrying shift across key demographics. In 2017, the NPP held a large lead among urban voters, men, and those with post-secondary education. By 2024, the NDC had closed or even reversed these gaps. For example, the NPP’s 64% to 34% edge over the NDC among men in 2017 has completely flipped. In 2024, the NDC holds a 53% to 44% advantage among the same group.

This shifting political landscape became clear with a heavy electoral defeat in 2024. The results of the recent by-elections simply confirm this trend. Many familiar voices within the NPP argue that losing a by-election is normal. They caution against overreading the results. Dr. Osae-Kwapong agrees that the party will likely survive. Ghana’s democracy, after all, needs a strong opposition. A single dominant party would harm the nation’s political health. Nevertheless, something fundamental is changing. The party must get a pulse on this new reality. It must develop a strategic response. They must address these new challenges.